Like it or not, Donald Trump is most likely going to win the Republican Party’s nomination before there is a chance for a contested or brokered convention. April has 309 delegates to allocate, mostly winner-take-all or winner-take-most. How are things going to look? Here are my predictions for each state in April.
I will update with new predictions before each primary is held and publish them sometime before each primary.
April 5, 2016 – Wisconsin (42 Bound Delegates; Winner-Take-All)
According to RealClear Politics, Trump has closed a five-point gap to one point behind Ted Cruz in the past week. Yes, Cruz is still ahead of Trump by one point, but Wisconsin’s primary isn’t for another week. These two polls were taken within three days of each other. One poll in the middle of last month showed Trump ahead by about 10 points, so the average will put Trump ahead by two points.
My prediction for Wisconsin is that Trump will win, but it will be close between him and Cruz. My basis for this has nothing to do with the average polling and everything to do with this four-point gain within two or three days.
Projected Delegate Count by April 6, 2016: Trump 781; Cruz 465; Kasich 143
April 19, 2016 – New York (92 Bound Delegates; Winner-Take-Most)
New York’s primary allocates proportionally with a 20 percent threshold. The most recent polling for New York was done about a week and a half ago and then a couple weeks before that. Between these polls, Trump’s support shot up by 19 points to 64 percent, placing his average at 54.5 percent. Cruz has gained one point in that same period. However, Kasich fans will be saddened to hear that he went from 18 points crashing down to one lonely point.
My prediction for New York is that Trump will be the only candidate to win delegates. If the polling is anything like the primary election, it will be Cruz won’t even get to 20 percent. I believe that if he gets anywhere near it, it will be between 15 and 18 percent. I believe that Trump will gain around 60 percent of the vote, which would earn him 55 delegates.
Projected Delegate Count by April 20, 2016: Trump 836; Cruz 465; Kasich 143
April 26, 2016 – Northeast Primary (109 Bound Delegates)
Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island all have their primaries on this day. This is where Kasich has a chance to sway some votes. However, I personally believe that he will gain very few delegates, if any, due to the fact that he has no chance at winning the nomination.
Connecticut (25 Bound Delegates)
Allocation is by winner-take-all if they have 50 percent or more of the vote or proportioned with a 20 percent threshold. Though a little older, Connecticut’s polling suggests that Trump lost a good amount of support in one month. If this were to continue, he will have less than 20 percent of the vote. Cruz’s support didn’t change, but Kasich’s support drastically increased between the polls.
My prediction for Connecticut is that Kasich will win, but he won’t get above 50 percent. I could see Kasich getting 45 percent of the vote, Cruz getting around 28 percent of the vote, and Trump getting 18 percent of the vote.
Projected Delegate Count After Connecticut: Trump 836; Cruz 472; Kasich 154
Delaware (16 Bound Delegates)
Allocation by winner-take-all, polling in Delaware suggests that Trump is ahead of Cruz by 35 points. Support for Trump has dipped a time or two over time, but it has increased over the past few months. Support for Kasich is seemingly surpassing Cruz. But support for Cruz is not necessarily on a downward trend.
My prediction for Delaware is that Trump will win all 16 bound delegates due to a winner-take-all allocation. However, I do not think it will be a close race at all.
Projected Delegate Count After Delaware: Trump 852; Cruz 472; Kasich 154
Maryland (38 Bound Delegates)
Allocation by winner-take-all, polling in Maryland suggests that support for Trump has increased over the span of a few months. Support for Cruz and Kasich has also increased. However, support for Cruz has increased quicker than support for Trump. This, of course, was over the span of four months. Trump’s support may increase by just three percent over the course of this next month, but Cruz’s support would increase by 3.75 percent.
My prediction for Maryland is that Trump will win all 38 bound delegates due to the allocation method. Though Cruz’s support is increasing at a faster pace than Trump’s support, I do not believe it will be enough for Cruz to win the primary. Especially since Trump is nine points ahead of Cuz.
Projected Delegate Count After Maryland: Trump 890; Cruz 472; Kasich 154
Pennsylvania (14 Bound Delegates)
Supposedly winner-take-all, polling in Pennsylvania suggests Kasich may prove to be the winner in the keystone state. While Trump’s support has declined by three points within a month, Kasich’s support has increased by 20 points. Cruz’s support has increased by three points, but I do not see Cruz even coming in second.
My prediction is that Trump will win the 14 bound delegates and 28 of the unbound delegates. I believe Kasich will win around 29 of the unbound delegates. Cruz will come out on the bottom.
Projected Delegate Count after Pennsylvania: Trump 934; Cruz 472; Kasich 183
Rhode Island (16 Bound Delegates)
Allocated proportionately with a 10 percent threshold, polling for Rhode Island is minimal. With one poll conducted in February to go from, Trump came out on top 33 points ahead of Cruz, but only 29 points ahead of Kasich. Marco Rubio was still in the race, but I believe that most of his voters will support Cruz (maybe 75 percent). If this is the case, then 18 points would boost Cruz, but not enough to “win the state.”
My prediction for Rhode Island is that Trump will win 7 delegates, Kasich will win 6 delegates, and Cruz will win 2 delegates.
Projected Delegate Count after Rhode Island and by April 27, 2016: Trump 941; Cruz 474; Kasich 189
Check back often for updated primary predictions individualized by date